Prediction-market trade ideas, in plain words.
Kelvora watches what top traders are backing on Polymarket US sports markets, checks the price against the sportsbooks, and tells you whether it looks fair. You make every decision.
A Windows app, in early access. Trading is switched off until you turn it on, and every order needs your confirmation.
Riverside FC wins
Riverside FC vs. Northgate United, today 7:30 PM
33% chanceCosts 29c
Wins about 1 time in 3. Top traders are backing it.
Kelvora’s 33% chance beats the cost (29c plus about 1.4c in fees) by 2.5 points. That is a slight edge. It is an underdog, so it loses about 7 times in 10.
How Kelvora reads a trade
Three steps, then the decision is yours.
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It finds what top traders are backing.
Kelvora follows the best sports traders on Polymarket and lists the trades you can actually buy on Polymarket US, at the price you would really pay.
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It checks the price against the sportsbooks.
Before a game starts, Kelvora compares the market price with sportsbook odds, so you are not relying on one crowd. Once a game is in progress it ignores them, because their odds update too slowly to match a live price.
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It gives you a chance and a verdict.
You see how often your side should win, what it costs, and a verdict in words. If you want to buy, Kelvora suggests an amount that fits your balance, and you confirm it yourself.
After you buy, the My trades page keeps watching and suggests Hold, Buy more, Trim or Sell, with the reason.
Value is not the same as likely.
Each verdict compares two numbers: the chance Kelvora gives your side, and what the trade costs, fees included. If the chance is higher than the cost, the trade is worth more than its price. That can be true of a trade that loses more often than it wins.
Try it in the example: slide the price down and the verdict improves while the chance stays put. Back to the example
- Good value
The chance beats the cost by 4 points or more.
- Slight edge
The chance beats the cost by 1 to 4 points.
- No clear edge
Close to fair, or a little under it. Kelvora leaves these out of its list unless you ask to see every match.
- Overpriced
The cost is 4 points or more above the chance.
- Underdog
Added to anything under 50%. It can still be good value, but it loses more often than it wins.
What is in the app
- Best trades right now
- A ranked list of trades you can buy on Polymarket US. Each one shows the pick in words, the chance, the price and a short reason.
- Amounts that fit your balance
- Kelvora suggests a small amount, never more than 5% of your balance on one trade or 30% across your open trades. Your limits start at $10 per order and $25 per day, and you can change them.
- My trades
- Everything you hold on Polymarket US, what it is worth now, how it is doing, and a plain suggestion: Hold, Buy more, Trim or Sell.
- Results
- Kelvora keeps score of its own finished picks and shows whether its chances held up. Until it has enough results to say, it tells you so.
- Alerts
- Optional sound and Discord messages when a new good trade appears.
- Sync
- Sign in on another computer with your email and password and your settings follow you.
Built to be honest about what it knows
Kelvora shows how sure it is, and checks itself afterwards.
The chance is an estimate, and it can be wrong.
Kelvora starts from the market price and moves it a few points for the sportsbooks and the top traders. Those adjustments are starting beliefs, and they get checked against real results as they come in.
A 33% chance still loses about 7 times in 10.
So anything under 50% is tagged Underdog, and every trade says in plain words how often it should win.
Live games ignore the sportsbooks.
Their numbers lag behind the score, so Kelvora does not mix them into a game that is in progress.
It keeps score of itself.
The Results page shows how its finished picks did, the wins and the losses alike.
Your keys stay on your computer.
Kelvora can place real orders, so it is built to do nothing until you say so.
- Trading is off until you switch it on.
- Nothing is bought or sold in a fresh install.
- Every order needs you.
- Kelvora shows the price and the total, then waits for you. By default you type BUY to confirm, and selling works the same way.
- Your Polymarket US key is locked with Windows.
- It is saved on your computer and sent only to Polymarket US. If you choose to sync it to another computer, it is locked on your computer first, and Kelvora’s server holds only scrambled data.
- It can do four things with your account.
- Read your positions, read your balance, preview an order, and place an order you confirmed. Nothing else.
- Sync cannot read your keys.
- Your password is turned into two secrets on your computer. One signs you in and one locks your data, and the server never receives your password or the lock. The trade-off is real: if you forget your password, nobody can recover what was saved.
What you need
- A Windows PC
- Kelvora is a Windows app today.
- A Polymarket US account
- You create an API key in your account settings. Whether you can use Polymarket US depends on where you live and on their rules.
- Optionally, a sportsbook odds key
- A key from The Odds API lets Kelvora compare prices with sportsbooks before games. Without one, Kelvora still works from the market price and the top traders.
- Not affiliated
- Kelvora is an independent app. It is not made by, or endorsed by, Polymarket or The Odds API.
Pricing
Kelvora is a subscription. Download it, create an account in the app and choose a plan. A plan renews automatically until you cancel, and you can cancel at any time from Manage billing in the app.
Payments are handled by Stripe. We never see your card number.
Download Kelvora
Kelvora is in early access. Download it, try it, and tell us what you think with the Support button or in our Discord. Pricing will be posted on this page before anyone is asked to pay.
Download Kelvora, then create an account in the app and choose a plan. Questions? Use the Support button or ask in our Discord.
Installing it
- Open Kelvora.exe from your Downloads folder. It is a single file: there is nothing to unzip and nothing to install.
- Your browser may say the file is not commonly downloaded, because Kelvora is new. If you got it from kelvora.dev, choose Keep.
- Windows may show a blue “Windows protected your PC” screen, because Kelvora is not code-signed yet. If you got it from kelvora.dev, choose More info, then Run anyway.
- In Settings, connect your Polymarket US account. Trading stays off until you turn it on.
To check that your file is the one we published, open PowerShell in the folder where you saved it and run Get-FileHash .\Kelvora.exe. The result should match this fingerprint (SHA-256):
ec0837163f258f4d2fe18a1625f030afa778b6a4af950dad2cc6b74ec437c628
Questions
Is Kelvora financial advice?
No. Kelvora is software that shows information and estimates. It does not know your finances and it does not tell you what to do. Every decision, and every order, is yours.
Does it guarantee a profit?
No. The chances are estimates and they can be wrong. A trade can lose everything you put into it, so only use money you can afford to lose.
Will it trade for me automatically?
No. Buying and selling is switched off until you turn it on, and every order shows you the price and the total and waits for you to confirm it.
Which markets does it cover?
Sports markets that you can buy on Polymarket US.
What does “edge” mean?
It means the chance Kelvora gives your side is higher than what the trade costs, fees included. It does not mean the trade is likely to win. A 33% chance can be a slight edge and still lose about 7 times in 10, which is why anything under 50% is tagged Underdog.
Why does Kelvora ignore sportsbooks during a game?
Sportsbook odds are refreshed too slowly to follow a live score. Once a game has started, Kelvora uses the live market price and the traders instead.
Where is my Polymarket key stored?
On your computer, locked with Windows. It is sent only to Polymarket US. If you choose to sync your key to another computer, it is locked on your computer first, and Kelvora’s server holds only scrambled data.
What if I forget my sync password?
Nobody can recover what was saved, including us, because the lock never leaves your computer. You can reset sync, which deletes the saved copy, and start again. The settings on each of your computers are not affected.
How much does Kelvora cost?
Kelvora is free while it is in early access. Pricing will be posted on this page before anyone is asked to pay.
Kelvora is a subscription, monthly or yearly. The current prices are in the Pricing section above. You need a Kelvora account (an email and a password, made in the app) so the app can check your subscription.
How do I cancel?
In the app, open Settings, then Your subscription, then Manage billing. Cancelling stops the next payment, and you keep access until the end of the period you have already paid for.
Does Kelvora work on a Mac or a phone?
Not yet. Kelvora is a Windows app today.
My browser or Windows shows a warning about Kelvora. Is it safe?
Browsers and Windows warn about any program from a publisher they do not know yet, and Kelvora is new and not code-signed yet. Only download it from kelvora.dev, and compare the fingerprint in the Download section with your file’s (the PowerShell command is shown there). If you would rather wait until it is signed, that is a reasonable choice.
How do I get in touch?
Use the Support button at the bottom right of any page to send us a message. Our support team is told straight away, and we reply by email. You can also join our Discord to talk with other users.